Demand in China to grow 13.9% yearly through 2011. The market for motorcycles in China is projected to increase at an annual rate of 13.9 percent, reaching 44.4 million units by 2011. Strong growth in the Chinese motorcycle market will be primarily driven by rapidly increasing sales of electric motorcycles, which are signifi- cantly cheaper than gas motorcycles and subject to lower levels of government regulation, making them popular choices among urban consumers as an upgrade to traditional bicycles. At the same time demand for traditional gas motorcycles will see steady growth, with sales especially strong in rural areas, benefiting from rising income levels.

Gas motorcycle sales to remain strong

Demand for gas motorcycles in China will be driven primarily by increases in rural income levels as well as ongoing demand for cheap forms of individual transport across the country. Urban motorcycle bans and other restrictions enforced by local governments will ensure that the gas motorcycle market will remain focused on rural areas going forward. Motorcycles with engine displacements between 50cc and 249cc  will continue to dominate demand through 2011, benefiting from their  suitability for use in a wide range of rural applications. Smaller models will suffer from competition from electric motorcycles, while market gains for larger machines are expected to be modest due primarily to declining sales in the military and police segments and a mediocre outlook in the transportation segment. Nevertheless, demand for larger motorcycles will see robust growthin the recreation and sport markets, although these two markets will remain relatively small in the forecast period.

Electric motorcycles to register stronger gains

Sales of electric engine motorcycles will outpace gas motorcycles and become the more dominant motorcycle segment in China in 2011, due in large part to the cost-effective and environmentally friendly characteristics of these vehicles. Being a comparatively new model, electric scooters and other more powerful machines dominate the electric market, due to their superior performance compared to other electric motorcycle models. Demand for electric motorcycles powered by li-poly batteries will outpace lead-acid powered motorcycles in the forecast period, and become the dominant battery type in the Chinese market. Advances will be driven by improvements in li-poly technology, which will enable these batteries to be  used in more powerful applications. High tech electric motorcycle engines powered by hydrogen or zinc fuel cells are not expected to achieve significant market penetration in China in the near-term due to a lack of fuel cell reactant refueling infrastructure.

Recreation use is minimal

Nearly all motorcycles purcased in China are used by their owners for transportation purposes. Advances will be spurred by demand for cost-effective vehicles in both urban and rural areas. Although a relatively small segment, demand for recreational and sport motorcycles will see fast growth going forward, driven by rising personal income levels and greater popularity of motorcycle activities among  young people in China. Demand for electric recreational motorcycles is also being fueled by the emergence of electric vehicle rentals in tourist spots.

Study coverage

It presents historical demand data for 1996, 2001 and 2006 plus forecasts for 2011 and 2016 by product, market and region. In addition, this study considers market environment factors, evaluates market share and profiles 39 competitors.

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