Independent 5 year Automotive industry forecasts for Nigeria.
Original Automotive market research and Automotive sector trend analysis for the Nigeria Automotive industry.
Competitive intelligence, Nigerian Automotive company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic Automotive companies in Nigeria.

The Nigeria Automotives Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.

Nigerian Automotives Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Nigerian automotives market.

Key Benefits of Report

Benchmark It’s independent 5-year Automotives Industry forecasts on Nigeria to test other views – a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Nigerian Automotives market.
Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Nigerian Automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Nigeria.
Exploit the Latest Competitive Nigerian Automotives Intelligence & company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by production, sales, market share and ownership structure – includes multi national and national companies in Nigeria.
Coverage

Executive Summary & Swot Analysis

Summary of It’s key industry forecasts and trend analysis, and commentary on key company and industry headline events. Collection of SWOT studies on local automotives market, economy and business environment.

Regional Overview

Cross-border analysis on the structure, size and value of the automotives sector, including comparative historical data and forecasts on the region’s sales and production figures.

Business Environment Rankings

Comparative guide to the region’s business environment, ranking of the regional markets by CBU Output Growth, Vehicle Penetration Potential, Regulation, Market Competition, Economics Risk and Politics Risk. The rankings table provides It’s view on the competitiveness of the regional markets.

Market Overview

Outlook of local market, commenting on its structure, size and value.

It 5-Year Industry Forecast

Historic data series and 5-year forecasts to end-2011 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including: Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type, including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses; total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

It 5-Year Macroeconomic Forecast

It forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses and rankings by production, sales, % market share, employees, registration date and ownership structure.

Company Profiles & SWOTS

Company profiles, including SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities & Threats)analyses, fully researched senior executives and full contact details, business activity, leading products and services.

Executive Summary

It delivers a more optimistic assessment of the Nigerian car market in its latest Nigeria Automotive Report, with vehicle sales set to rise by over 18% in 2007, on the back of 5.9% growth in GDP. Automotive sales will be determined by overall trends in the Nigerian economy, with investor confidence and a growing consumer class continuing to drive growth, and we are forecasting a very good year in 2007. However, growth will be short lived, due to our belief that GDP growth levels will decline in 2008 and 2009, leading to sales in the region of 46,500-46,800 units. Sales will then rise to over 48,000 units in 2010, before falling to around 43,000 units in 2011.

There is also a mood of confidence in the Nigerian car assembly sector, which has the potential for a revival following the successful privatisation of Peugeot Automotive Nigeria (PAN) and Anambra Motor Manufacturing Company (ANAMMCO). In January 2007, the federal government’s stake in PAN was handed over to a local Peugeot dealership. In the same month, the federal government’s 24% stake in ANAMMCO was sold to GU Okeke & Sons Ltd, one of the country’s largest bus transportation companies.

PAN has set its sights high. In March 2007, PAN announced a NGN6bn (US$49.2mn) project to manufacture 307 cars and develop a Nigerian engineered car. The T6 Project aims to make Peugeot products affordable to all Nigerians. In April 2007, PAN signed an agreement with Peugeot for the establishment of a brand new production line for the production of the Peugeot 307 as part of the T6 Project.

There is uncertainty over whether the new core investors - locally owned firms with less capitalgenerating power than foreign auto majors - can raise the necessary capital to revive the Nigerian automotive sector. It doubts that the new owners will be able to bring production to anything near capacity. Unless the new plant managers can improve efficiency and cut costs, the future of these assembly lines will remain dim. A leaner and skilled workforce and an overhaul in technological inputs will be vital to securing the long-term future of these plants. While the new owners at PAN and ANAMMCO are involved in the vehicle retail and transportation sectors, they have no prior involvement in automotive manufacturing. Consequently, the participation of strategic partners from the automotive sector will be crucial to these plants’ long-term future.

Despite concerns over the long-term viability of the privatised automotive plants, the medium-term future of these assembly operations has been secured and It is forecasting modest increases in output over the forecast period. This is likely to be supported by government spending on vehicle purchases, with growing political pressure for supply contracts to be given to local producers. A revival of production at ANAMMCO, albeit with modest levels of output, will also add to the output figures. The government’s car loan programme for state employees to buy PAN-manufactured cars will also help sustain demand, although at a lower rate than initially projected. It forecasts that output will rise from an estimated 14,500 units in 2006 to 15,500 units by 2011.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1 – SWOT Analysis

Nigeria Auto Industry SWOT

Chapter 2 – Middle East and Africa Overview

Table: Middle East And Africa Autos Production – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Table: Middle East And Africa Autos Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)

Suppliers

Table: Africa Autos Sales 2005 By Segment

Table: Middle East Autos Sales 2005 By Segment

Chapter 3 – Business Environment Rankings

Economics – Long-Term Risk

Politics – Long-Term Risk

CBU Output Growth

Vehicle Ownership/Penetration Potential

Regulation

Competitive Environment

Chapter 4 – Industry Forecast Scenario

Production and Sales

Table: Nigeria Automobile Sector – Historic Data & Forecasts (US$mn unless otherwise specified)

Trade

Table: Nigeria Automobile Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts (US$mn unless otherwise specified)

Chapter 5 – Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Table: Nigeria - Macroeconomic Forecasts

Country Snapshot: Nigeria Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Consumption And Stratification

Chapter 6 – Special Focus: Commercial Vehicles

Regional Market Overview

Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Country Ranking, Sales

Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Country Ranking, Production

Table: Regional Commercial Vehicle Market: Company Ranking Of Significant Regional Manufacturers

Table: Recent And Planned Investments In The Middle East And Africa

Nigeria Commercial Vehicles Sector

Table: Nigeria Commercial Vehicle Sector – Historic Data & Forecasts

Table: Nigeria Commercial Vehicle Sector – Historic Data & Forecasts

Chapter 7 – Competitive Landscape

Table: Nigerian Vehicle Manufacturers Scheduled For Privatisation

Chapter 8 – Company Monitor

Regional Case Study: Ford

Sales

Table: Ford Dealers In Middle East And Africa

Production

Table: Ford Assembly Plants In The Middle East And Africa

Company Profiles

Peugeot Automobile Nigeria (PAN)

Toyota Nigeria

It Forecast Modelling

Automobile Industry

Sources

Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

Table: The Long View: Data Over The Economic Cycle (2000-2007)

Table: Population

Table: Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Table: Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Table: Market Size, GDP, US$bn

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